When will EVs overtake gas-powered vehicles?

Electric vehicles have made a huge impact on how the world sees sustainable and reliable mobility, but how popular are they really? Even though EVs are a common topic of conversation in new headlines and on social media, they still only account for a small percentage of vehicles on the road. In fact, as recently as 2021, electric cars made up only 1% of vehicles on the road in the US.

But EV manufactuers and governments are playing the long game. Electric vehicles are growing exponentially in popularity. So, will we ever get to a point when EVs will overtake gas vehicles? And if so, when will it happen?

In this, we’ll outline the stats and put the race into perspective.

When will electric vehicles outnumber gas vehicles?

In a recent study, global consumer and data analytics company Experian crunched the numbers on electric vehicle usage in the USA. It found that of the 284 million cars on the road, just 1.7 million were EVs as of the second quarter of 2022. 

However, just four years before, there were only 400,000 EVs on the road. That’s a jump of 325%. There’s no doubt that the shift is happening – it’s just a matter of how quickly.

In a 2021 report, the New York Times put the timeline into perspective:

• Analysts project that EVs could make up 25% of new vehicles sales by 2035
• By 2050, this is projected to rise to 60%.

However, these stats don’t account for the turnover of vehicles. When a new vehicle is made, an old one doesn’t simply disappear. Vehicles, electric or otherwise, last for many years. Even if reach 60% of new sales in 2050, the majority will still be gas. Based on this, there’s a long way to go before EVs overtake gas vehicles.

When will electric cars be affordable?

As competition and mass-production ramp up, electric vehicle prices are dropping. In 2022 :

• Tesla reduced its entire range by $3,000-$19,000
• Hyundai reduced their Kona Electric by $3,390
• Nissan reduced the Leaf by almost $4,300.

However, these price drops aren’t being reflected across used models just yet. Prices for used EVs stayed relatively consistent for most 2022, but have dropped slightly since the winter. Fingers crossed that electric cars will become even more affordable in 2023.

It’s also worth noting that used EVs are now eligible for a $4,000 federal EV tax credit for purchases under $25,000. If your used vehicle costs less than this, you could see further discounts still.

When will all cars be electric?

Electric cars may be rising in popularity, but it may take state intervention for them to replace gas cars entirely. In California, automakers are to phase out gas cars by 2035. We’ll have to wait and see whether other states follow suit.

In terms of traditional gas-powered vehicle owners making the change to electric, there is an increasing number of incentives and propositions being offered, from purchasing discounts to tax credits. The shift is definitely happening, but with the internal combustion engine being the main form of propulsion for the last century or more, things may take a good while longer before we’re looking at a majority EV world.